The reasoning behind the ocean of derivatives and other financial obligations floating around in the world is that they mostly cancel each other out. That's the excuse because otherwise their amount (arguably some 20 times the total world economy) wouldn't make any sense. It's like adding up all €100 debts from the story above, and arriving at €400 in total debt, all canceled out by one ring of €100 transactions:
- Hotel Owner's debt to Meat Supplier: €100
- Meat Supplier's debt to Farmer: €100
- Farmer's debt to Prostitute: €100
- Prostitute's debt to Hotel Owner: €100
When €400 becomes €0 after canceling out all transactions, this is called netting. Everything is fine and supposedly there's nothing to worry about. A situation which can be illustrated like this:
| Obligations cancel each other out thanks to netting, everyone involved is supposed to win by having their risks managed via a multitude of financial instruments as insurance. |
Let's see what happens with the above story when the Meat Supplier decides to take a trip to Greece instead of paying off his debt to the Farmer. Turns out that only €100 in debt gets canceled, leaving €300 still lurking around. And with no way to pay as the income was taken out of the netting universe.
In the world of modern finance, this is precisely the problem that the world is experiencing - failed institutions, failed countries, failed promises, and failed ways to fulfill the promises. Something like this:
altruistic or kleptocratic society this is possible, and if people decide that they want to subsidize Meat Supplier's vacation time or steal from others to subsidize that, they can do it.
But clearly things are very different when the same happens to the world of financial derivatives. Will the world's taxpayers be altruistic enough to pay off debts that could be measured on the scale of the World's GDP? Or if it's stolen from them forcefully via corruption, would it still be possible? Isn't it completely foolish to even think in that direction?
Or, the same question in other words: what should be the size of EFSF to make it work? 10% of the world's GDP? 20%? 50%? Is it even possible to know the answer to this question???

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